Tag: Handicapper

The Myth of the Hot Sports Betting Handicapper

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The most prevalent means of sports service marketing is some variant on the theme that so and so is "red hot" and you should therefore pay him your money and follow his plays. The crooked services do this by coming up with all sorts of confusing and contradictory rating systems and hyperbolic descriptions for their games. How many times have you heard a handicapper brag about being "16-2 on his 500 star MWC underdog plays of the month" or saying that his "Southern Conference total of the month is 60% lifetime"?

Basically, the bottom feeders of this industry can slice and dice their statistics all sorts of ways to make themselves seem "hot". Or they can do what a lot of them do, and simply lie about their performance. When I was first starting out as a sports handicapper there was no such thing as the Internet (at least as it exists today) and I had to rely on a scorephone for line and score updates. This scorephone was sponsored by a group of touts not noted for their veracity, and you had to sit through a few pitches for their 900 numbers before you got to the scores. A bit of a Faustian bargain, to say the least, but it was an effective way of keeping up with scores in the pre-Internet dark ages.

So one night we're at a party thrown by some kid that we did not like too much. My crew and I were racking our brains to think of some mean pranks to pull on the guy. Someone got the idea to rack up some 900 # charges on our mark's phone bill. Since there's no such thing as 900 # directory assistance, I resulted to the only 900 # I could remember – one of the touts from the scorephone that had drilled his digits into my memory through the sheer force of repetition.

For the sake of argument, I decided to write down the tout's NBA plays. I had less faith in his handicapping ability than I would in a prognostication based on a divining rod or Ouija Board, but since I was not paying for the call I figured I'd just see how the guy did. I wrote down his plays and checked his performance the next morning.

To his credit, the tout went 5-3 on his 8 plays. By any criteria a 5-3 night is a solid performance. Later that day I called the scorephone and waited for the tout to start crowing about his 5-3 night. Much to my surprise, the tout did say a word about his 5-3 night. That's because he was too buy bragging about his mythical 7-1 performance the preceding day.

Now, I understand that the revelation that boiler room touts like about their performance is on par with "pro wrestling is fake" or "the games at the fair aren't on the up-and-up" as self evident truths. The point I'm trying to make, however, is that the desire to be the "hot handicapper: is so great that the tout felt he had to embellish a solid performance the night before.

So despite the fact that some handicappers like about their performance, what's wrong with trying to ride the hot handicapper? Plenty-it's not only an ineffective way to evaluate a handicapper's abilities, it also has a number of statistical and theoretical shortcomings.

The simplest way to explain what I'm talking about is to borrow a disclaimer that you'll hear on every commercial for a mutual fund: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". The sports gambling milieu, like those of stocks, commodities and other financial instruments, is a marketplace and subject to a number of the same tendencies of other financial institutions (what economists call "market dynamics").

The fact that a sports wager's success or failure is dependent to a degree on the "whims" of a marketplace (of odds and pointspreads) and to a greater degree on other external events outside of the bettor's control exacerbates what is already a matter of simple logic: what a handicapper does over a period of time (be it a day, week, month or season) has no intrinsic correlation between a handicapper's performance one year and the next. In other words, the sports gambling marketplace and the random patterns of events that act upon them don't care if I hit 60% last year. If I don't do my work, crunch the numbers, get good prices to bet into, and catch a few breaks along the way I may end up beaten regardless of how well I performed in a subsequent period of time.

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Source by James Robert Murphy

Categories: Sports Betting

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How To Become A Good Football Betting Handicapper

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Basic football handicapping is absolutely essential to long-term success when football betting. Without at least a basic knowledge of handicapping, you are doomed to failure. With Football Betting, you must hit 52.38% winners just to break even when placing equal bets.

Becoming a good football handicapper is not too difficult, but you must learn how to properly assess your money management, have a basic idea of ​​how to determine statistics, and have a good amount of discipline when deciding on wagers.

Before the football betting season starts, make sure to determine your bankroll and bet sizes. This can make or break your season in a hurry. I recommend no more than 2-5% of your bankroll per bet. This is a good start for money management.

A good football handicapper knows they have an advantage over the average bettor when football betting. Most average bettors just decide that they like and team, and will bet on them for no good reason. By learning the tricks of the trade so to speak, you can become a consistent winning football handicapper if you set your mind to it.

Some handicappers prefer using statistical methods to pick winners, while other handicappers may rely on situational methods. There are also emotional factors for football betting that are used for handicapping.

I am the type of handicapper who uses all three of these methods when football betting. First and foremost I look at the stats of the 2 teams when handicapping to see if I can find a point spread winner.

Does either team have a big edge on defense, offense or special teams? Home or away, divisional and conference records. Of course this is simplified handicapping, but you get the message.

You should develop a Power Rankings system like good football handicappers do to help with this. This allows you to compare the point spread that has been set by the bookmakers, and see if you have an advantage when compared to your numbers.

Next, I look at the situation of each team, like who they last played and who they play next such as divisional opponents. This helps you decide if there is an edge for either team because of their schedule and present situation.

Finally I look for emotional factors when football handicapping like a team coming off a big win or loss, possible letdowns, bounce backs and more. Football is a very emotional game, and you should never overestimate or underestimate this important angle.

You can become a good football handicapper using statistical, situational or emotional angles, or a combination of all three. Take the time to learn these skills and you will be rewarded. Soon you will know when to make the right wager, and when to lay off a game.

I wish you all the luck at becoming a good handicapper at football betting. Enjoy the football season!

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Source by Craig G Gelinas

Categories: Sports Betting

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The Big 3 Factors in Choosing a Sports Handicapper

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Are you a sports fan who likes to bet on his favorite team? Are you a casual bettor or do you bet on sports seriously? For casual bettors who enjoy plopping down a few bucks on a game of interest, there is not so much a need to pay for a professional service that provides betting advice. It’s just a little money on an interesting game, and it makes spectating a little more enjoyable. But for those individuals who take their sports betting seriously, they may want to consider hiring a sports handicapping service.

In many cases, it can make sense to hire a handicapping service, but you need to understand exactly what you are paying for. You’re not hiring the handicapper (also known as “capper”), for some additional counsel. They shouldn’t be viewed as just another opinion. If you are going to pay handicappers, then you should take their tips and bet them accordingly. Picking and choosing which bets to play may not be the best strategy.

So let us assume you have made the decision to hire a capper because you are serious about making money in the world of sports betting. What should you look for in your search? Although there are many similarities in the various cappers, there are also some differences as well. In this article we will review three of the most important considerations.

Look for an Experienced Handicapper

There is an old saying that there is no substitute for experience and that is very true in the world of sports handicapping. Make no mistake that capping sports games successfully takes a lot of hard work. There are many variables to consider and these guys need time in the business to really figure out how to do their jobs effectively. That usually involves many years in the business. Thus, look for a handicapper with at least ten years of solid experience handicapping sports.

Find a Handicapper Who Posts Results Publicly

In the business of sports betting, there are many handicappers who prefer to keep their identities and results private. That may serve their own needs well, but for me, I want to know who I am hiring and what their track record for successful capping has been. Look for someone who isn’t afraid of being transparent, if not with their identity, at least with their results. It is common knowledge that even the top handicappers are only successful 55-60% of the time. Make sure the handicapper has a success rate of a minimum of 55%, so that you can bet profitably over the long run. After all, you are paying him for his expertise and he should therefore be willing to own up to all of his picks.

Ensure the Pricing Structure Fits into Your Budget

The bottom line in professional sports betting is making money. The bookmaker must get paid. The handicapper must get paid, and you, the bettor, wants to get paid too. Before you hire a handicapper, make sure you have a complete understanding of his prices. Are you paying for a subscription? If so, how long does it last, and is the renewal rate the same? Calculate the handicapper’s fees into your formula to determine how successful you need to be to profitable. Higher priced handicappers are more suited for the bigger bettors.

Conclusion

Who is the best sports handicapper? The answer may surprise you. There are quite a few good ones out there. If you choose one that has been capping for at least ten years, posts their results publicly, and has a fair pricing structure, then you have done your homework and are ready to dive into sports betting with a good partner.

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Source by Phil Fogliani

Categories: Sports Betting

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The Myth of the Hot Sports Betting Handicapper

[ad_1]

The most prevalent means of sports service marketing is some variant on the theme that so and so is “red hot” and you should therefore pay him your money and follow his plays. The crooked services do this by coming up with all sorts of confusing and contradictory rating systems and hyperbolic descriptions for their games. How many times have you heard a handicapper brag about being “16-2 on his 500 star MWC underdog plays of the month” or saying that his “Southern Conference total of the month is 60% lifetime”?

Basically, the bottom feeders of this industry can slice and dice their statistics all sorts of ways to make themselves seem “hot”. Or they can do what a lot of them do, and simply lie about their performance. When I was first starting out as a sports handicapper there was no such thing as the Internet (at least as it exists today) and I had to rely on a scorephone for line and score updates. This scorephone was sponsored by a group of touts not noted for their veracity, and you had to sit through a few pitches for their 900 numbers before you got to the scores. A bit of a Faustian bargain, to say the least, but it was an effective way of keeping up with scores in the pre-Internet dark ages.

So one night we’re at a party thrown by some kid that we didn’t like too much. My crew and I were racking our brains to think of some mean pranks to pull on the guy. Someone got the idea to rack up some 900# charges on our mark’s phone bill. Since there’s no such thing as 900# directory assistance, I resulted to the only 900# I could remember – one of the touts from the scorephone that had drilled his digits into my memory through the sheer force of repetition.

For the sake of argument, I decided to write down the tout’s NBA plays. I had less faith in his handicapping ability than I would in a prognostication based on a divining rod or Ouija Board, but since I wasn’t paying for the call I figured I’d just see how the guy did. I wrote down his plays and checked his performance the next morning.

To his credit, the tout went 5-3 on his 8 plays. By any criteria a 5-3 night is a solid performance. Later that day I called the scorephone and waited for the tout to start crowing about his 5-3 night. Much to my surprise, the tout didn’t say a word about his 5-3 night. That’s because he was too buy bragging about his mythical 7-1 performance the preceding day.

Now, I understand that the revelation that boiler room touts like about their performance is on par with “pro wrestling is fake” or “the games at the fair aren’t on the up-and-up” as self evident truths. The point I’m trying to make, however, is that the desire to be the “hot handicapper: is so great that the tout felt he had to embellish a solid performance the night before.

So despite the fact that some handicappers like about their performance, what’s wrong with trying to ride the hot handicapper? Plenty-it’s not only an ineffective way to evaluate a handicapper’s abilities, it also has a number of statistical and theoretical shortcomings.

The simplest way to explain what I’m talking about is to borrow a disclaimer that you’ll hear on every commercial for a mutual fund: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”. The sports gambling milieu, like those of stocks, commodities and other financial instruments, is a marketplace and subject to a number of the same tendencies of other financial institutions (what economists call “market dynamics”).

The fact that a sports wager’s success or failure is dependent to a degree on the “whims” of a marketplace (of odds and pointspreads) and to a greater degree on other external events outside of the bettor’s control exacerbates what is already a matter of simple logic: what a handicapper does over a period of time (be it a day, week, month or season) has no intrinsic correlation between a handicapper’s performance one year and the next. In other words, the sports gambling marketplace and the random patterns of events that act upon them don’t care if I hit 60% last year. If I don’t do my work, crunch the numbers, get good prices to bet into, and catch a few breaks along the way I may end up beaten regardless of how well I performed in a subsequent period of time.

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Source by James Robert Murphy

Categories: Sports Betting

Tags: