Tag: Line

Fifteen Baseball Stars Still Looking Up At The Mendoza Line In 2018

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Few people would have predicted that the Philadelphia Phillies would be eight games over .500, and only a half game behind the Washington Nationals, heading into June. Those optimists were probably relying on the fact the last place Phils did make a couple of key acquisitions over the winter, and therefore were bound to be better.

A warning that last season’s sensational rookie Rhys Hoskins would be hitting just .220 with a scant six home runs probably would have made even those devout followers foresee Philadelphia at eight games under .500 instead of over, and that prediction would be even worse had you told them All-Star free agent Carlos Santana would be hitting just above the .200 mark.

Believe it or not, Santana ‘s low batting average is not nearly the worst we have seen in 2018, a season that looks as if it could see record low batting averages. He are fifteen star players who have batting averages under .200, a mark that has become known as the Mendoza Line.

Nick Ahmed .199

The Arizona Diamondbacks managed to hold first place in the National League West for much of the season, in spite of the below average offense from their regular shortstop.

Jackie Bradley Jr. .199

Boston announcers refer to the star outfielder as JBJ, whose Red Sox have the best record in all of baseball.

Carlos Gomez .194

Now with Tampa Bay, the former runner up for Most Valuable Player has struggled so far in the Days outfield.

Logan Morrison .198

After establishing a career high in home runs in 2017, the left handed slugger has gotten off to rough start with his new team in Minnesota.

Jason Kipnis .199

His struggles kind of symbolize those of the Cleveland Indians, who have managed to stay a .500 solely because of their outstanding pitching rotation.

Matt Joyce .199

Oakland has been up and down for the first two months, while it is still waiting for Joyce’s bat to regain prominence.

Ian Desmond .190

The Colorado Rockies first baseman n as flexed a lot of power, but any other hits have been rare.

Adam Duvall .184

It is possible that Cincinnati’s odd four man outfield rotation negatively affected the former All-Star, who has had to sit out every three games or so.

Dexter Fowler .180

Now that catcher Yadier Molina is on the disabled list, the St. Louis Cardinals may need this star outfielder to return to the form he had when they signed him to a large free agent contract last year.

Kolten Wong .180

Unlike his teammate mentioned above, Wong’s struggles have been going on for much longer than just this season.

Chris Davis .160

Baltimore’s first baseman has never hit for a real hign average, but it is too low now and so is his power.

Lewis Brinson .155

Miami is in a rebuild, but they need this youngster to really step up to come even close to replacing Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yellich and Marvel Ozuna in the Marlins outfield.

Kole Calhoun .145

While he often stands beside MVP Mike Trout in the Los Angeles outfield, he is barely in the same ballpark when it comes to batting averages.

Russell Martin .174

His catching skills will keep him in the lineup, but the Blue Jays need Russell to raise his average about fifty points if Toronto is to contend in 2018.

Kendrys Morales .194

He has been plagued by injuries, but if he can get healthy he can offer much needed protection for the rest of the guys in the Blue Jays lineup.

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Source by Doug Poe

Categories: Sports Betting

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Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line

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Using a random line at a Las Vegas casino sportsbook for a mythical Yankees/Royals game, we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular game.

To calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%

To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are positive), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0.3268 = 32.68%

Looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 100 which is never a good sign for percentages; in fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The additional 1.43% represents the theoretical hold for the sportsbook or more commonly called the vigorish (and generally shortened to vig) which is the % amount charged by the sportsbook for its services. Assuming that the sportsbook draws in equal action on both sides it will then make 1.43% profit on the total amount of bets placed but since they are unlikely to attain equal action in most betting lines, it is only a theoretical hold.

Since the winning percentages contain an element of vigorish, we need to remove that in order to end up with the actual, rather than the implied, winning percentages and this will give us the no vig line; this is done by dividing each implied winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%

Now we can convert the two actual win probabilities into a no-vig line.

For an actual win probability equal or greater than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where FV is equal to the decimal win probability of the favored team) for the Yankees line is:

-100 / ((1 / FV) – 1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) – 1) = -210.4

For an actual win probability less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where UD is equal to the decimal win probability of the underdog) for the Royals line is:

((1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4

Since the sportsbook vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.

This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning.

Simply knowing how to calculate the no-vig probabilities is not going to make you a winning bettor but you can use those probabilities to help you win; one way to do this is to create a model that are more accurate than the opening lines of a sportsbook.

Suppose that you model the game tomorrow between the Yankees and the Royals and the lines are -160/+150 respectively and you model the game with a fair line of -170/+170. Obviously the underdog is not a good bet since you only get a price of +150 on a game where you predict they should be getting +170. Conversely, the price of -160 is more appealing since the line is better than you have modelled. The line of -170 you predicted converts to a winning percentage of 62.96% as opposed to the actual line of -160 which gives 61.54% – this means that taking the Yankees at a price of -160 gives you an edge of 1.42%.

When you bet with a positive edge (based on the line you bet versus the no vig closing line, assuming you are betting into efficient markets) you will win at sports betting over the long term. If you bet with a negative edge then, much like a game of roulette at your local casino, you will be a lifetime loser.

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Source by Steve Marino

How To Beat The On Line Football Contests

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Have you every went to your free football pick em contest site on Monday morning anticipating seeing your name in the #1 position in the standings only to find you are in 27,345 place? You picked 15 correct out of 16 possible selections and you were so far down the list that you felt like hitting the delete button on the contest site. Yep that is normal for the more popular contests like ESPN and the major sporting publications who draw hundreds of thousands of contestants each year. But don’t panic, if you really look at the above situation, you are really in 2nd place and only 1 game out of being in first place. If the maximum picks available were 16, and you had 15, the most the leader could have is 16 thus putting you in 2nd place.

There is little doubt that going up against that many people will make the contest closer to the odds of a lottery than a contest of skill. Some of these “free” contests offer some very nice prizes, but usually the big cash prizes come from the contests that carry some sort of cash entry fee. Of course now your chances of winning are enhanced as the number of participants is drastically reduced, but then again these contests are usually the ones that draw the very good sport handicappers, the ones who are the serious players in sport betting and handicapping. Personally I would rather take my chances with fewer people and put forth a little effort to research the schedule and pick the winners.

There are two types of football pick ’em contests, the ones that require you to only pick the winner of the game outright, and then the type that are played “against the spread”. Again you have a huge difference in the number of entries you are up against and the odds of someone getting a “perfect” card on a given Sunday are extremely remote. A very good football handicapper is hard pressed to win 60% of the games he picks against the spread. The spread is a number assigned to the weaker of the two teams to even the score so to speak for betting purposes. The Sport Books in Las Vegas would not exist if they allowed bettors to just place wagers on who will win the game. So they establish a point spread to try to even out the betting on each team as much as possible.

To win a on-line contest of any kind is quite difficult because of the number of people you are playing against. But you can cut the odds by playing in the contests that have a small fee and you can cut it even further by playing against the spread. Either way the goal is to pick as many winners as possible and hope between your doing your homework and a little bit (a whole lot of luck) you can get more winners than everyone else. Here are a few tips for picking winners in the no point contests:

You can determine which of the two teams is the better team by just looking at the point spread at one of the online books or sometimes in your local paper. USA Today also posts point spreads on all games. The team that is showing the (-) minus before the number is the favorite. Example: New England -7 over NY Jets means the oddsmakers believe the Patriots to be 7 points better than the NY Jets in this particular weeks game.

Once you determine who the favorites are, look for the all the favorites with point spreads of 7 points or more and just automatically pick them in your contest. These teams will only lose the game straight up about 20% of the time. You then want to look for those teams that are playing at home and are either getting 3 points or less or are favored. These should be automatic picks. Now the fun starts. Every week there are 3 or 4 games that do not fall into these scenarios, and these are the games that usually make the difference between cashing in the money and racking up the season as just having a lot of fun.

Finding those 3 or 4 teams to pull off the upset will take doing some research. Reading news articles, reviewing injury reports, looking at game situations, weather conditions etc…..Of course now we are getting into hard core handicapping, and unless you are experienced and have the time try, your best and have fun. There is a sources that can help such as sport services and betting advisors, but you certainly don’t want to pay for services for a on-line contest unless you were getting close to cashing in on a big win, but then you came this far without them, why switch now.

You might like to attend the “Las Vegas Sport Handicappers Workshop” which is free and with a panel of experts each week, you could get a big edge on some of the games for your contest, it is also a great resource for the serious sport bettor. The workshop is held each Wednesday at 9pm Eastern – 6pm Pacific. It is a free conference room with live chat and audio. For registration details, more football handicapping articles and to receive a free Best Bet selection and newsletter each week go to: http://www.tonydiamond.com

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Source by Tony Diamond

Categories: Sports Betting

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Use an Odds Checker to Track Line Movement in Sports Betting

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Each sports matchup that is placed on the board for a sports gambler is an opportunity to make a profit. The line on the particular contest serves as a reference point to see how the public feels about who will win. Serious punters know the significance that line movements can have on their long term profitability as well as the outcome of games. Knowing this, sportsbooks hire linesmakers and oddsmakers are hired to balance lines as a result of changes that occur when bettors begin to place capital on games.

Still, educated sports bettors can gain an edge with certain “soft” lines if they notice significant movements prior to the beginning of a game. Likewise, if their research, or a recent injury indicates that a particular line is off, bettors can grab an early line before the more investors catch wind of the discrepancy. This is how many successful sports bettors make a long term profit betting NFL or betting the NBA spread, among others.

The Difficulty of Handicapping

Oddsmakers are much more concerned with verifying all games on the given day and trying to create lines that will get equal attention and money on either side of the contest. You can imagine that with so many games, this can become a large and difficult task. Obviously, incorrect lines and line errors end up costing millions to sportsbook if they are not caught quickly enough. This danger is one of the reasons why linesmaking remains one of the most difficult industries to succeed in in the world. Still, sportsbooks have a history of being profitable year over year. There are however some tools that wagerers can use to increase their chances of being successful over time.

Just like stock market patterns, movements of a sports line are not easy to follow for several reasons. Some odds comparison sites take their opening lines from the same origin, while others create their own. Most of the time though, oddsmakers use a service that creates opening lines as their full-time business. Of course, in different countries and sports, different odds companies are used to create the odds. As a bettor, it is advantageous to get your hands on information online where they post the opening lines and the real-time line changes for games covering a variety of sports. It makes sense to track the line of a team throughout the week if possible to see how many points the spread moves as more volume comes in on each contest.

Public Betting Percentages

One of the first rules of sports betting is that the public loses about 2 of 3 times. The average bettor has a losing record, so when there is significant movement on a line, this rule can give sharp bettors information into which side the public is on. If the public goes hard on a line and make the favorite even more of a favorite, a linesmaker may make an adjustment to get the bet back to equilibrium. These patterns are normally quite conspicuous. Online websites that track these movements and explain the basics behind spotting line changes are the best way to glean critical information out of these circumstances.

Tracking Line Movement

Line movements are evaluated in various ways. The most important thing to remember is that movements are always representing money backing a particular side. A punter can interpret this in different ways by thinking that a dropping line means that the public is betting them. This scenario could also mean that smart bettors are seeing value in the favorite side. It is called a fade when you bet a team simply because the favorite is betting the favorite more than they deserve to be wagered on.

The second theory is that the sharp money is aware of the value in a matchup and moving the line themselves. If you are able to correctly notice this pattern, then you can jump on the correct side and make a profit. The term “steam” originates from this scenario where a bettor recognizes smart bettors gathering on one side. When a line is steaming it means that it is moving quickly in a particular direction. Making a late play like this can pay dividends.

Wrapping It Up

Make sure that you don’t use line movements as the sole criteria for predicting a contest. Today, there are plenty of sites offering some form of odds comparison. For a reference point, here is one dynamic example of an odds checker. When handicapping tennis matches, soccer matches, or any type of sport, you want to make sure that there are a number of factors and criteria that you use to evaluate and predict the outcome of the event. Use any real-time tools and quality information that you can to get an edge on the odds.

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Source by Jimmy Spindrix

Categories: Sports Betting

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