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Gambling News

Odds & How To Watch ‘The Match’

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Golf — and betting on golf — is back, thanks to Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

Golf and gambling have gone together like golf and the nineteenth hole since duffers first pulled wood clubs from “bags” made of twine.

The pace and segmentation of play, granular to the shot and the hole allows for the concoction of friendly little wagers between participants, and in a modern, broadcast-in-high-definition sports entertainment world, for sports bettors in real-time.

The first time Woods and Mickelson tangled, there was criticism of the much-publicized match play event last November between Woods and Mickelson was there wasn’t enough of that making-it-interesting chat, especially considering Mickelson’s proclivity for a flutter.

They get their chance again on Sunday, in a staged-for-television event that will generate a $10 million donation to COVID-19 relief efforts: The Match: Champions for Charity. Oh, and their teammates will be NFL greats Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Betting on Tiger vs. Phil

Sportsbooks, groping for familiar content as most sports remain dormant because of the pandemic, eagerly await the proceedings.

“The last time they faced off in The Match you heard sort of the gaming banter that you often hear when you’re out on the course with your buddies,” PointsBet sports content manager Andrew Mannino told PlayUSA. “I think that as legalized gambling expands to more states, as more people get used to it and get involved, I think there’s a really a great opportunity to continue to expand on that kind of event and it’s going to let people infuse their sports experience with their sports betting experience.”

With the “big four” professional sports leagues in the United States continuing to formulate a return, golf takes its return at the fore, even with the PGA Tour not scheduled to return until June 11.

“Golf’s popularity in the US is undeniable; both in terms of playing and watching,” Mattias Stetz, chief operating officer of Rush Street Interactive, which operates BetRivers Sportsbook and PlaySugarHouse.com told PlayUSA. “There is no reason why the betting product cannot thrive.

“The sport very much lends itself to betting with a wide variety of markets both pre-match and live. Enthusiasts have ample opportunity to wager pre-event with PGA Tour events priced up on Mondays, while the live product being more popular for those who want to see a quick turnaround in their wager.”

Where, When and how of ‘The Match: Champions for Charity’

  • When: 2 p.m. EST, May 24
  • Where: Medalist Golf Club, Hobe Sound, Fla.
  • On TV: TBS, TNT, truTV, HLN.
  • Format: Team of Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady.

Each team member plays 18 holes. Fourball play with the best individual score for each team used on the front nine.

Teams will use the best drive on the back nine and alternate shots, keeping one scorecard, known as a modified alternate shot format.

Mannino said betting volume on the match will be greater than the TaylorMade Relief charity event from last weekend and roughly equal “to a busy NHL game.”

Stetz said that over the last five days, handle has increased five-fold, with 60 percent of tickets written for Mickelson/Brady even though they are +180 underdogs.

Interesting prop bet for Woods-Mickelson

Longest Tee Shot, Third Hole: Brady -134, Manning +100 at PointsBet

Though Manning and Woods are favored to win, the odds are slanted toward the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback on the 540-yard par-5. Interestingly, the odds were diametrically opposite and DraftKings, which had Manning (-134) as the favorite over Brady (+100) on Tuesday.

“Some of the ones I really like are nearest to the whole after tee shot,” Mannino said. “We have them separated into Woods versus Mickelson and Manning versus Brady. So you can bet on those individual guys if you have a lean on Peyton Manning’s tee shot, then that really gives you an opportunity to put that to the test.”

At BetRivers and PlaySugarhouse, Stetz said, there will be specific holes where for Manning and Brady closest-to-the-pin or longest-tee bets. On the 12th hole, the company will offer whether Brady will hit the green in regulation on the par 3, and if Manning can find the fairway in regulation on 18.

Are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady good golfers?

Mickelson on teammate Brady: “I have confidence in Tom. I’ve seen him play some of his best golf when he wasn’t expecting to play well. Sometimes expectations get in the way of performing well and so going in here to a foreign site on their home course without his A-game, would lead anyone to think that we wouldn’t have much of a chance and I think we might even lull these two to sleep a little bit. We might even let them win a hole or two and get up early, try to lull them to sleep and then finish strong.”

Manning playing with Brady (they have partnered numerous times in tournaments): “The last time we played, we got beat by an 84-year-old and a 77-year old. Like, closed out on 15.”

Stetz said lines are made mostly on Woods vs. Mickelson, but noted some intel on the quarterbacks which has solidified the Manning tandem as favorites.

“The bulk of the price comes down to how you would price Tiger versus Phil, however, given the back nine will be based on an alternate shot format, Brady and Manning will clearly have a large bearing on the outcome,” Stetz said.

“It is well-publicized that both players are a good standard with Peyton Manning having a 6 handicap and Tom Brady an 8 handicap. It is currently unclear if Brady will have a shot on Manning, however the impact on price would be minimal.

“The front 9 will likely be dominated by the performance of the pros, however our golf experts will be keeping a close eye on how Manning and Brady are playing for pricing on the back 9. As you’d expect, everyone is in the dark to some extent, which certainly adds to the spectacle.”



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Gambling News

So, Which Two Teams Are Going To Super Bowl LIV? Here Are The Latest Odds

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Finally, the NFL playoffs have arrived.

After 17 weeks of fantasy football, parlays, prop bets and general Monday morning quarterbacking, the reason we play the game – aside from just winning (sorry, Herm Edwards) – kicks off with Wild Card weekend.

The next 11 games, spanning about a month, will determine the Super Bowl LIV champion.

It could be the league’s best team: the Baltimore Ravens. Or perhaps the dynastic New England Patriots. Maybe it’s the breakthrough year for the Kansas City Chiefs. Or is it the NFC’s year with the San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints?

For our money, we’ll take the Green Bay Packers. But more on that in a bit.

With 14 states offering legalized sports betting, including 10 states with online sportsbooks, Super Bowl betting has never been bigger.

So the question remains: Who ya got?

NFL playoff schedule: Wild Card to Super Bowl

A championship and accompanying glory await one of 12 teams.

On Feb. 2, Super Bowl LIV will crown said winner. The road to Miami starts this weekend.

Here are the Wild Card matchups and the teams awaiting those winners in the Divisional Round. The conference championships will take place Jan. 19. All times listed are in Eastern Standard Time.

Round Matchup Date/time
Wild Card Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Houston Texans (10-6) Jan. 4, 4:35 p.m.
Wild Card Tennessee Titans (9-7) at New England Patriots (12-4) Jan. 4, 8:15 p.m.
Wild Card Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3) Jan. 5, 1:05 p.m.
Wild Card Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) Jan. 5, 4:40 p.m.
Division Round TBD at San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Jan. 11, 4:35 p.m.
Divisional Round TBD at Baltimore Ravens (14-2) Jan. 11, 8:15 p.m.
Divisional Round TBD at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) Jan. 12, 3:05 p.m.
Divisional Round TBD at Green Bay Packers (13-3) Jan. 12, 6:40 p.m.

Laying out the Super Bowl futures

Bettors who dreamed big preseason are on the threshold of a big payday.

On the flip side, those who counted on favorites might be shaking in their boots a bit.

Before the season began, the Raves and 49ers carried +4000 odds to win Super Bowl LIV. Now, they are the two favorites. Meanwhile, the top preseason pick to claim the title, the Patriots at +400, has dropped to the middle of the pack.

Here are the updated odds for each team to lift the Lombardi Trophy, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Team DraftKings Sportsbook FanDuel Sportsbook
*Odds as of Jan. 2
Baltimore Ravens +220 +220
San Francisco 49ers +400 +400
Kansas City Chiefs +450 +450
New Orleans Saints +600 +600
Green Bay Packers +1000 +850
New England Patriots +1200 +1200
Seattle Seahawks +2500 +2500
Philadelphia Eagles +3000 +3400
Houston Texans +3300 +3500
Minnesota Vikings +3300 +4000
Buffalo Bills +4500 +5000
Tennessee Titans +5000 +5000

Sussing out the field to clear up Super Bowl betting

AFC No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)

As noted, the AFC North champion Ravens stand as the frontrunner to win Super Bowl LIV.

Baltimore rides a 12-game winning streak and comes off its second straight division title, which the franchise has done only one other time: in 2012, when the Ravens won the Super Bowl.

Likely MVP and QB Lamar Jackson ranks sixth leaguewide in rushing yards with a league-record 1,206 yards from the QB spot. He also finished the regular season third in passer rating after throwing for 3,100 yards and 36 TDs (against just six interceptions) on 66.1% passing.

The Ravens posted the most points (531) in franchise history and ranked first in points scored, second in yards gained, third in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed. To boot, Baltimore went 5-1 against teams currently in the playoffs.

Yet Baltimore is not our Super Bowl pick.

AFC No. 3 New England (12-4)

No franchise in NFL history boasts the Super Bowl success as the Patriots.

New England has appeared in a record 11 Super Bowls. Nine of those have occurred in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, since 2001, which itself would be a record. With the Hall of Fame QB and legendary coach, the Pats have won six league titles, which is tied for the most all-time.

They have advanced to the Big Game in each of the past three years, winning twice, and they have won three of the last five Super Bowls.

Even with an anemic offense, one that produced the franchise’s fewest points since 1996, New England’s defense has been dominant. It ranks first in points allowed (225, which is third-lowest in franchise history), yards allowed and interceptions, and second in takeaways.

The Pats have relied on powerful defenses before. In four Super Bowl-winning seasons, New England’s defense made up for poor offenses.

Yet New England is not our Super Bowl pick.

AFC No. 2 Kansas City (12-4), NFC No. 1 San Francisco (13-3), NFC No. 3 New Orleans (13-3), NFC No. 5 Seattle (11-5)

The 49ers put together their best season in nearly a decade and scored the franchise’s third-most points (479) in a season. San Francisco has home field through the NFC championship, and no team in the league scored more points at home than the 49ers.

But San Fran is not our pick. Neither is Kansas City, which has won six straight and is one of the more formidable road teams (if it came down to it) and is the only playoff team to have defeated the Ravens (33-28 at home in Week 3).

Neither is New Orleans, whose lone loss over the final seven games came against San Francisco, which is also the Saints’ only loss against current playoff teams. Neither is Seattle, which recorded its best record since going to the Super Bowl in 2014 and nearly won the NFC West while playing the league’s sixth-strongest schedule – and the strongest among playoff teams.

Our pick to win Super Bowl LIV: Green Bay Packers (13-3)

It seems the Packers enter every season with lofty expectations thrust upon them. This season, however, was not one of them.

Green Bay came into the year with a new head coach and uncertainties at skill positions. Somehow, though, the Packers took advantage of flying under the radar, recording the franchise’s best record since 2007 and locking up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

The last time Green Bay was in the postseason, three years ago, it lost in the conference championship. This year, the Packers are our value pick to win the whole dang thing.

The AFC is set up to beat up on one another, thereby sending its conference champ limping into the Super Bowl. The NFC, however, appears more forthright. And with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers calling the shots, fresh of his eighth season with at least 4,000 passing yards and ninth straight year with single-digit interceptions, it’s difficult to bet against the Pack.

Green Bay closed the regular season with five straight victories. It features a 1,000-yard rusher in Aaron Jones (who tied Tennessee’s Derrick Henry for most rushing TDs this season) and went 3-2 against playoff teams – the third-best record among the field.

Sure, the Packers’ strength of schedule ranked dead-last, but they did what they were supposed to do: win against teams they’re supposed to win against.

Come Feb. 2 in Miami, that’s what Green Bay will do: Win.

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Gambling News

So, Which Two Teams Are Going To Super Bowl LIV? Here Are The Latest Odds

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Finally, the NFL playoffs have arrived.

After 17 weeks of fantasy football, parlays, prop bets and general Monday morning quarterbacking, the reason we play the game – aside from just winning (sorry, Herm Edwards) – kicks off with Wild Card weekend.

The next 11 games, spanning about a month, will determine the Super Bowl LIV champion.

It could be the league’s best team: the Baltimore Ravens. Or perhaps the dynastic New England Patriots. Maybe it’s the breakthrough year for the Kansas City Chiefs. Or is it the NFC’s year with the San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints?

For our money, we’ll take the Green Bay Packers. But more on that in a bit.

With 14 states offering legalized sports betting, including 10 states with online sportsbooks, Super Bowl betting has never been bigger.

So the question remains: Who ya got?

NFL playoff schedule: Wild Card to Super Bowl

A championship and accompanying glory await one of 12 teams.

On Feb. 2, Super Bowl LIV will crown said winner. The road to Miami starts this weekend.

Here are the Wild Card matchups and the teams awaiting those winners in the Divisional Round. The conference championships will take place Jan. 19. All times listed are in Eastern Standard Time.

Round Matchup Date/time
Wild Card Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Houston Texans (10-6) Jan. 4, 4:35 p.m.
Wild Card Tennessee Titans (9-7) at New England Patriots (12-4) Jan. 4, 8:15 p.m.
Wild Card Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3) Jan. 5, 1:05 p.m.
Wild Card Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) Jan. 5, 4:40 p.m.
Division Round TBD at San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Jan. 11, 4:35 p.m.
Divisional Round TBD at Baltimore Ravens (14-2) Jan. 11, 8:15 p.m.
Divisional Round TBD at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) Jan. 12, 3:05 p.m.
Divisional Round TBD at Green Bay Packers (13-3) Jan. 12, 6:40 p.m.

Laying out the Super Bowl futures

Bettors who dreamed big preseason are on the threshold of a big payday.

On the flip side, those who counted on favorites might be shaking in their boots a bit.

Before the season began, the Raves and 49ers carried +4000 odds to win Super Bowl LIV. Now, they are the two favorites. Meanwhile, the top preseason pick to claim the title, the Patriots at +400, has dropped to the middle of the pack.

Here are the updated odds for each team to lift the Lombardi Trophy, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Team DraftKings Sportsbook FanDuel Sportsbook
*Odds as of Jan. 2
Baltimore Ravens +220 +220
San Francisco 49ers +400 +400
Kansas City Chiefs +450 +450
New Orleans Saints +600 +600
Green Bay Packers +1000 +850
New England Patriots +1200 +1200
Seattle Seahawks +2500 +2500
Philadelphia Eagles +3000 +3400
Houston Texans +3300 +3500
Minnesota Vikings +3300 +4000
Buffalo Bills +4500 +5000
Tennessee Titans +5000 +5000

Sussing out the field to clear up Super Bowl betting

AFC No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)

As noted, the AFC North champion Ravens stand as the frontrunner to win Super Bowl LIV.

Baltimore rides a 12-game winning streak and comes off its second straight division title, which the franchise has done only one other time: in 2012, when the Ravens won the Super Bowl.

Likely MVP and QB Lamar Jackson ranks sixth leaguewide in rushing yards with a league-record 1,206 yards from the QB spot. He also finished the regular season third in passer rating after throwing for 3,100 yards and 36 TDs (against just six interceptions) on 66.1% passing.

The Ravens posted the most points (531) in franchise history and ranked first in points scored, second in yards gained, third in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed. To boot, Baltimore went 5-1 against teams currently in the playoffs.

Yet Baltimore is not our Super Bowl pick.

AFC No. 3 New England (12-4)

No franchise in NFL history boasts the Super Bowl success as the Patriots.

New England has appeared in a record 11 Super Bowls. Nine of those have occurred in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, since 2001, which itself would be a record. With the Hall of Fame QB and legendary coach, the Pats have won six league titles, which is tied for the most all-time.

They have advanced to the Big Game in each of the past three years, winning twice, and they have won three of the last five Super Bowls.

Even with an anemic offense, one that produced the franchise’s fewest points since 1996, New England’s defense has been dominant. It ranks first in points allowed (225, which is third-lowest in franchise history), yards allowed and interceptions, and second in takeaways.

The Pats have relied on powerful defenses before. In four Super Bowl-winning seasons, New England’s defense made up for poor offenses.

Yet New England is not our Super Bowl pick.

AFC No. 2 Kansas City (12-4), NFC No. 1 San Francisco (13-3), NFC No. 3 New Orleans (13-3), NFC No. 5 Seattle (11-5)

The 49ers put together their best season in nearly a decade and scored the franchise’s third-most points (479) in a season. San Francisco has home field through the NFC championship, and no team in the league scored more points at home than the 49ers.

But San Fran is not our pick. Neither is Kansas City, which has won six straight and is one of the more formidable road teams (if it came down to it) and is the only playoff team to have defeated the Ravens (33-28 at home in Week 3).

Neither is New Orleans, whose lone loss over the final seven games came against San Francisco, which is also the Saints’ only loss against current playoff teams. Neither is Seattle, which recorded its best record since going to the Super Bowl in 2014 and nearly won the NFC West while playing the league’s sixth-strongest schedule – and the strongest among playoff teams.

Our pick to win Super Bowl LIV: Green Bay Packers (13-3)

It seems the Packers enter every season with lofty expectations thrust upon them. This season, however, was not one of them.

Green Bay came into the year with a new head coach and uncertainties at skill positions. Somehow, though, the Packers took advantage of flying under the radar, recording the franchise’s best record since 2007 and locking up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

The last time Green Bay was in the postseason, three years ago, it lost in the conference championship. This year, the Packers are our value pick to win the whole dang thing.

The AFC is set up to beat up on one another, thereby sending its conference champ limping into the Super Bowl. The NFC, however, appears more forthright. And with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers calling the shots, fresh of his eighth season with at least 4,000 passing yards and ninth straight year with single-digit interceptions, it’s difficult to bet against the Pack.

Green Bay closed the regular season with five straight victories. It features a 1,000-yard rusher in Aaron Jones (who tied Tennessee’s Derrick Henry for most rushing TDs this season) and went 3-2 against playoff teams – the third-best record among the field.

Sure, the Packers’ strength of schedule ranked dead-last, but they did what they were supposed to do: win against teams they’re supposed to win against.

Come Feb. 2 in Miami, that’s what Green Bay will do: Win.

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Sports Betting

Betting Advice – Horse Racing System Stats – Odds on Horses

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Horse racing systems are frequently based on research and statistics. Without them, building a horse racing system would be a lot more complicated. I use a lot of programs and Internet resources for my own research, but this can be very expensive and run into hundreds each month. So in order to present you a bit of a helping hand I have listed a number of helpful statistics beneath:

+Odds On Horses+

The vast majority of people seem to think odds on horses are unbeatable or bad value. Neither is true, they get beaten pretty often, and as for value if you get a Pattern winning horse running in a Seller at 1/5, that is potentially decent value.

A quick statistic now:

58% of odds on horses win their races on the flat.

54% win on the AW (All Weather). That 4% difference makes quite a difference, so pay closer attention to short-priced racehorses on this surface.

Splitting all flat races into race type with the percentage of winning odds on runners:
4+ & all age H/c’s – 48%
Specific age H/c’s – 53%
Claimers – 56%
2yo Sellers – 56%
3yo Seller – 60%
Other Sellers – 56%
3yo & all age Maidens – 59%
2yo Maidens – 61%
2yo condition races – 62%
3yo & all age condition races – 57%

All the above based on statistics over 5 years.

This will confidently give you a little help in pointing out prospective odds on winners.

———————

+5f Sprint Favourites +

In reply to a query I was sent with regard to how many odds on favourites win 5f sprints:

Over the last 16 years,

Handicap – 23% – 924/3960 – #376.62 Loss
Claimer/Auction – 35% – 420/1208 – #89.98 Loss
Non-Handicap – 35% – 779/220 – #233.10 Loss
Group or Maiden – 38% – 878/2310 – #175.09 Loss

Sprints are not really good for odds on runners, you ought to be looking at them in 1 mile and upwards races. Also using the betting exchanges will provide better prices on some, but in a number of cases once you deduct the commission you can have a lower price than the bookies offer.

———————

+Winners last time out – Flat+

Just some quick basic stats for the flat from 10 years of statistics:

Last time out winners win 17.45% next time out

Horses that won there last 2 races win 21.52% next time out

Winners of there last 3 win 24.81%

Last 4 win 26.25%

Last 5 win 29.17%

Last 6 win 38.24

—————

+Winners last time out – National Hunt+

Source – 10 years all NH races run under rules. Chances of horse winning next time out:

Last time out winner – 23.61%
Won last 2 – 29%
Won last 3 – 33.89%
Won last 4 – 37.65%
Won last 5 – 39.64%
Won last 6 – 38.53%

Compared to the flat, sequence winners over jumps have a much bigger probability of winning again.

———————————

+Nursery Top Weights+

A Nursery is a Handicap race for 2 year old’s.

I read a comment in the RFO (Racing and Football Outlook newspaper) from one of their ‘tipsters’, that ‘top weight’s in Nurseries are always worth a second look.

Now me being what I am, I wanted to test this wonderful theory, as this is how we learn, so I ran it through my software.

As normal with this type of media information it is shot down in flames.

Over the last 16 years:

Qualifiers: 2459
Winners: 359
Strike-rate: 14.56%
Loss: -#461
Average loss per year: -#28

Only 1996 showed a profit of #36, clearly a coincidence.

Not very good is it? Obviously it’s the media giving the typical punter the normal worthless myths.

Remember, when you hear media remarks such as ‘horses for courses’, ‘always back the outsider of 3’, etc, the opposite is regularly true.

These stats ought to help you develop your method betting, and go towards building a horse racing system.

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Source by Keith Driscoll

Sports Betting

Horse Race Betting Odds and Tote Board Angles

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If you are new to horse racing or even if you’ve been going to the races for years, but still want to learn better ways to pick winners, here are a few angles based on odds that may help you. There are really people who can make a profit by watching the tote board and betting a certain way based on the odds, but rest assured there aren’t many of them and it is a very specialized skill. There are also people who can add large columns of 7 figure numbers in their heads, but that too is a very special skill. So unless you are a tote board savant, you probably aren’t going to get rich just betting based on odds.

Even though you won’t be able to look at the board and pick a winner every time, here is a way to pick more winners. First of all, the toteboard is a pretty accurate gauge of a horses true chances of winning. The only problem with that information is that it is a good estimate of the horses chances, but only after the last flash, which is when the race has already started and the tote is locked down, meaning no further bets.

Many people don’t realize it but about half of all the money wagered on a race isn’t totaled or figured in until the last click, which is too late for you to get a bet in. Therefore, here is a real important caveat, anything you see on the tote board is subject to change without notice. People who use the tote board odds and make money betting on horses also have to be good at spotting trends and knowing which way the odds will go, no small trick, believe me. In lay betting, this is a very important skill as well.

Here are some important angles that you should consider when looking at the tote board. First of all, the winner of most races is usually found in the top three betting choices. About 70% of races are won by a horse in the top three. In horse race betting there may be eight horses in the race that account for 100% of the pool, but the winner is probably in the top 38%. If you keep your bets in the top three horses, therefore, you have a better chance of winning, according to statistics.

Another angle people use when following the odds is to look for early money and late money. If a horse gets a lot of action as soon as the tote board flashes the odds for that race and then just before the race starts, the same horse is bet heavily again, even if it isn’t the favorite, it may mean the horse is live and insiders are trying to get their bets in before anyone realizes the horse is going for the win.

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Source by Bill Peterson

Sports Betting

Horse Racing Betting Profits and Systems Based On Tote Board Odds

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It’s very difficult to make a profit betting on horse races because the market is self regulating. In other words, it adjusts to the conditions. The bettors set the odds in a pari-mutuel system and the public is very good at determining the chances of a horse winning a race. The reason you can’t make money betting on their top choice is simple.

The track has to take money out of the pari-mutuel pool in order to pay itself and the state. In a perfect world, the bettor who is as good as the rest of the crowd at picking winners will still come up short to the tune of whatever the takeout may be. So if the track is taking 17% from the win pool the bettor will lose 17% plus whatever the breakage may be.

In spite of this daunting setup some people still try to make a profit by using the odds on the board. To use those odds the would-be tote board analyst must have something to compare to and to determine that there is an irregularity or inconsistency. For instance, if he knows that the chances of Horse A winning are one out of three, and yet the horse is at 4-1, he has a winning bet.

Other than handicapping, however, what can he base that opinion on? The reason people turn to tote board betting systems is to avoid handicapping. Some people consider it a wise guy’s way of betting on horses. That may or may not be true, but one thing is certain, if you bet on horses that are at the right odds you’ll make a profit. The tote board player needs to know the probability of winning. The thing that usually determines that probability, or at least an indicator, is the odds, themselves.

If the odds will stay the same after the race starts and the betting pools are shut down you can use those odds to find a bargain in the show pool or win pool. Dr. Z and his tote board system proved that many years ago. The problem, however, is that those odds rarely stay fixed and there are other last minute bettors looking to exploit inconsistencies in the pools. While you’re making your place or show bet other tote board players are doing the same.

Other than finding those inconsistencies from one pool to the other I’d say the tote board is only useful as a tool is you use a good handicapping system to find a horse that is under-valued by the crowd.

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Source by Bill Peterson

Sports Betting

How Pitcher Orientation Should Impact Vegas Betting Odds For Baseball

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In our “Attention to Detail: Pitcher Orientation in Bounce Back Games” article, we talked about how pitcher orientation is an important element for bounce-back games. If we want our team to bounce back, their propensity for doing so is best if the opposing starting pitcher is the same orientation as the previous starting pitcher the team faced.

This all makes sense because hitters can start to become comfortable with a certain type of pitcher if they face them enough.

We also speak about how teams off one-run losses are likely to come out playing better baseball in their next game. Having lost by 1 run, they understand the importance of taking pitches, moving runners over, getting defensive stops, all the little things necessary to win ball games.

Combining these two elements makes for a very decent angle. With our team paying attention to detail off of a one-run loss, being able to hit a pitcher of the same orientation that they lost to is just icing on the cake.

In fact, there is a 10 point advantage to the odds between them facing the same pitcher orientation as compared to facing a different one. Vegas has not accounted for this because very few people know about it but adding an angle such as this to help you identify value on teams to bet on is key.

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Source by Peter Portero

Sports Betting

Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line

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Using a random line at a Las Vegas casino sportsbook for a mythical Yankees/Royals game, we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular game.

To calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%

To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are positive), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0.3268 = 32.68%

Looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 100 which is never a good sign for percentages; in fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The additional 1.43% represents the theoretical hold for the sportsbook or more commonly called the vigorish (and generally shortened to vig) which is the % amount charged by the sportsbook for its services. Assuming that the sportsbook draws in equal action on both sides it will then make 1.43% profit on the total amount of bets placed but since they are unlikely to attain equal action in most betting lines, it is only a theoretical hold.

Since the winning percentages contain an element of vigorish, we need to remove that in order to end up with the actual, rather than the implied, winning percentages and this will give us the no vig line; this is done by dividing each implied winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%

Now we can convert the two actual win probabilities into a no-vig line.

For an actual win probability equal or greater than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where FV is equal to the decimal win probability of the favored team) for the Yankees line is:

-100 / ((1 / FV) – 1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) – 1) = -210.4

For an actual win probability less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where UD is equal to the decimal win probability of the underdog) for the Royals line is:

((1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4

Since the sportsbook vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.

This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning.

Simply knowing how to calculate the no-vig probabilities is not going to make you a winning bettor but you can use those probabilities to help you win; one way to do this is to create a model that are more accurate than the opening lines of a sportsbook.

Suppose that you model the game tomorrow between the Yankees and the Royals and the lines are -160/+150 respectively and you model the game with a fair line of -170/+170. Obviously the underdog is not a good bet since you only get a price of +150 on a game where you predict they should be getting +170. Conversely, the price of -160 is more appealing since the line is better than you have modelled. The line of -170 you predicted converts to a winning percentage of 62.96% as opposed to the actual line of -160 which gives 61.54% – this means that taking the Yankees at a price of -160 gives you an edge of 1.42%.

When you bet with a positive edge (based on the line you bet versus the no vig closing line, assuming you are betting into efficient markets) you will win at sports betting over the long term. If you bet with a negative edge then, much like a game of roulette at your local casino, you will be a lifetime loser.

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Source by Steve Marino

Sports Betting

Understanding Different Types of Soccer Betting Odds

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We found this amazing site which is the greatest resource for online soccer betting, providing players with all the information they need before they make a wager. The popularity of soccer betting comes from the high popularity of the sport itself. Millions of people watch soccer to either cheer on their favorite team or just to get a hand on the adrenaline of the game. The most important difference between soccer betting and other forms of gambling is that it takes some time to become profitable and start earning real money. However once you have learned some basic tips – as outlined here, you’ll be able to enjoy higher than average returns on your wagers.

The trick in soccer betting is studying past soccer games to get a feeling for what the best odds are and to be able to tell if one team is going to win or not. While this may sound like an obvious piece of advice, you’d be surprised at how many players loose site of the “big picture” when betting on soccer games.

There are also many soccer tips you can find online forums that analyze game stats. Probably one of the best soccer betting tips is to take a look at all the online sports books before making your first bet; different sports books offer different bonuses and different odds, all of which affect your bottom line as a sports bettor. Therefore, simply taking some time to choose the best odds will put you in the right track to win big. Some of the best sports books online are William Hill, Ladbrokes, 888 Sport and Bet 365.

Soccer betting odds are not as favorable when the point spread (also known as an ‘Asian handicap’ is involved. So for beginners it is recommended to start playing with straight bets. This type of betting is also known as 1X2 where 1 is the home team, 2 is the away team, and X is a tie.

Because the skill in picking a winner based on a point spread is more difficult we recommend going with 1X2 wagers as predicting which team is going to win without giving an exact amount of points is a simpler task. Other ways to get a winning start when betting on soccer is to simply bet on the home team each time. While the odds are usually lower on home teams – they outperform both tie bets and away teams by a wide margin.

To increase your chances of winning, you should first stick to games where you know both teams and can easily tell what their behavior on the field will be like. You chances for success at betting on soccer will only decrease if you are betting on unknown teams, or are chasing long shots with no realistic chance of winning only to make a big score.

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Source by Francine Gecko

Sports Betting

Fixed Odds Football Betting

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The fixed odds football betting scheme is one of the best and most widely used option when dealing with sports betting since it uses a very up to date and highly accurate formula and means of assessing bets. Basically, this works by using the variables involved in the game and integrating it in a mathematical formula that would give the probability of the direction of the game. People should understand that everything can be predicted properly when the correct tools are used. This is the principle employed by the fixed odds method of looking into betting and game predictions. Many people have experienced success through this formula which makes it very reliable and appropriate for big time gamers. In fact, everything can be processed using the internet.

The fixed odds website has been designed to cater for the needs of the people who are looking to assess the games and place their bets into quality predictions. That is why the information, tips and guides found in the web site tackles the different betting modes found in every game which includes international, national and local events throughout the country. This is because millions of people are relying on the fixed odds betting for them to make good and profitable decisions. Multiple bets are encouraged by the site in order to take advantage of the situation and reduce the risk of losing money in one risk. This is a proven method which is called as progressive betting where in the money used and won is constantly bet. By following all the options and steps in the site, success can easily be gained.

The fixed odds football betting has been licensed in almost all the countries in the world since it uses all the legal means and ways of providing service without violation of the rights of the people and clients involved. It has been proven since the members post their betting statistics to the site to show how the advice and guides given where able to help them achieve their goal. It has easily given the people the easy and most practical way to earn money without putting their money in significant risk. In fact, millions of people have already found success in their favorite games since professional advice is given in the site. Believe it or not, the site is in collaboration with famous and veteran sports analyst who gives their thought on the game. This is a great help which could be the difference in earning or losing the entire client’s money.

The fixed odds football betting has changed the way how people bet their money on sports gambling since it has revolutionized fixed odds betting into something that is manageable and predictable. Betting is not dangerous when the user implements the proper tactic and method in deciding where to put his money. This would easily help thousands of sports enthusiasts to earn money through their favorite sporting events. Earning money has been made a hobby through the fixed bets football odds.

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Source by Chris F. Jenkins