In our “Attention to Detail: Pitcher Orientation in Bounce Back Games” article, we talked about how pitcher orientation is an important element for bounce-back games. If we want our team to bounce back, their propensity for doing so is best if the opposing starting pitcher is the same orientation as the previous starting pitcher the team faced.
This all makes sense because hitters can start to become comfortable with a certain type of pitcher if they face them enough.
We also speak about how teams off one-run losses are likely to come out playing better baseball in their next game. Having lost by 1 run, they understand the importance of taking pitches, moving runners over, getting defensive stops, all the little things necessary to win ball games.
Combining these two elements makes for a very decent angle. With our team paying attention to detail off of a one-run loss, being able to hit a pitcher of the same orientation that they lost to is just icing on the cake.
In fact, there is a 10 point advantage to the odds between them facing the same pitcher orientation as compared to facing a different one. Vegas has not accounted for this because very few people know about it but adding an angle such as this to help you identify value on teams to bet on is key.