Winning at sports betting is all about the probabilities. By studying them, it’s the only way that you can win consistently in the long term. Find out more about them in this article.
The Odds Show The Implied Probabilities
The odds that you are given by the bookie or at the betting exchange are a reflection of the implied probability being offered to you. How you work this out depends on the format of the odds that you are using.
For instance, fractional odds of 3/1 are also the same as decimal/international odds of 4, which are the same as US odds of +300. What these mean are a probability of one divided by the international odds (4) which gives 25%.
Always Go For Value In Probabilities
You should work out what you believe to be the real chance of your pick winning. Forget what the bookie is offering you for now. Work it out yourself and see what you come up with.
In the example above, let’s say that these were the odds given for picking the Chicago Bulls to win. If you believe that the Chicago Bulls are worse and really only have a 10% chance of winning, then you should not take this bet. You should take it because the bookie is not offering enough reward for your risk.
If you believe that the Bulls chance of winning is much more, say 50%, then you should take the bet. This is because the bookie thinks there is a slim chance of winning and will reward your risk for it handsomely. In actual fact, you know that they have undervalued the Bulls and you have not bad chances of winning.
Use All The Data Available
There are many ways to calculate probabilities for yourself. One way is to analyse the historic records of teams and players. There are many sources of data available these days and although it is available to everyone, a lot of people don’t use it. Thus you might find something that has been overlooked by everyone and be able to use this knowledge to your advantage.