Tag: Secrets

10 Secrets to Winning More Greyhound Races

[ad_1]

ONE: STOP PLAYING EVERY RACE!

It doesn’t matter what your skill level is. It doesn’t matter what method you us. If you use software or if you scratch on the program with a pencil, this piece of advice will instantly help you start losing LESS and begin winning MORE!

When you play every race your advantage (or disadvantage) changes with every race. You are splitting your playing bankroll between races that you may have a high advantage in with races that you may have ZERO advantage in. STOP!

Let’s assume for example that you have a playing budget of $100. On an average 15 race card that gives you $6.66 per race. It’s my experience that you will rarely be able to get an advantage on more than 2 or 3 races per card. That’s my average and I am VERY GOOD at what I do. So let’s assume you have a near ZERO chance on 12 of those races (it may be even more but I’ll be generous in this example and assume you have an edge in 3 races). So you have 3 races you have an actually advantage in. These are races where you have a great lead on a winner. And you also have great prospects on some secondary runners which will allow you to play the exacta or trifecta for a reasonable price. Let’s compare a possible result.

Estimated advantage 25%. This is a fictional advantage but I think it’s reasonable and we need something to work with.

12 races played at $6.66 per race with NO advantage means you lose $79.92

3 races played at $6.66 totals $19.98 played. With a 25% advantage means $4.99 profit.

$19.98

+ 4.99

———

$24.97 winnings + original bet

-79.92

——–

-$54.95 for a losing day

Now let’s play MY way. Pick your BEST 3 races and play them. It doesn’t matter if you win 1,2 or all 3 races. You know that you have a 25% advantage on your best races if you ONLY play them

3 races played for a total of $100.

25% advantage means $25 profit.

$125 for a winning day

As you can see… the math does not lie. PLAY FEWER RACES!!! WIN MORE MONEY!!!

TWO: HAVE A PLAN

Do you have a plan? A plan based on your bankroll, ability, goals? Even people who play casino games where the house ALWAYS wins can often ‘stay in the game’ a very long time just by having a plan. In greyhound racing the house doesn’t always win. Players do. So having a plan will put you light years ahead of the other players. What types of things should be in your plan? Here are a few

Bankroll

How much can you afford to play per month? Break that down by week, day and race. Then stick with this plan. ONLY play that amount per race and do not change. At the beginning of the next month if your bankroll has increased, then evaluate again by month, week, day, race and stick to that plan again.

Method

Figure out what you do best. The stick with it. Don’t get really good at exacta’s then suddenly decide to play a superfecta one day. You have not proven your superfecta strategy yet. Work on it. And in the mean time keep playing what you know best.

The better your plan is, the better your results will be. Guaranteed.

THREE: PLAY ON PAPER

I’m a professional. Playing greyhounds is what I do. I still play on paper. I mainly play trifecta’s but I am always looking for ways to increase my profits. Currently I am looking into the profitability of playing exacta’s. So While I am playing with real money to make my living, I also keep a running track of exacta’s on paper. When and if I deem it profitable I will begin playing for real money. They one thing I have learned over the years… someone who doesn’t have the discipline to play on paper, doesn’t have the discipline to be a profitable player. What kind of player do you want to be?

FOUR: ONLY PLAY RACES WITH COMPLETE INFORMATION

So you come across a race with a monster key dog. You really want to play a trifecta and pocket a ton of cash!! There is one problem in this race. It is a route race and 4 of the other greyhounds in this race have never run the route distance. So you try every way to can to figure out how these 4 greyhounds will run in the race at this new distance. You make your play and your key wins by a mile! Great! But you didn’t have the trifecta. Not even close. Why? You played a race that you didn’t have enough information about to make a good decision. STOP DOING THIS!

FIVE: ONLY PLAY RACES WHEN YOU KNOW THE WINNER

Every time I tell a player this they laugh at me. “If I knew who the winners were going to be without any doubts I would be rich!” Obviously you can’t know with 100% certainty a greyhound will win. But you CAN know if you have a likely winner. And you should play that winner.

Some players look at a race and their logic goes something like this…

IF the 1 breaks he could win. IF the 8 gets to the rail he could win. IF the 5 gets behind the 1 before the turn he will pass in the stretch and win. SO I should play a 185 on top with blah blah blah. THEY DON”T know what dog will win in this scenario! They SHOULD not be playing this race.

SIX: KEEP RECORDS… ALWAYS

How much money did you lose playing greyhounds last year? How much did you win? You don’t know?

I DO.

And every player who wins knows EXACTLY how much they won or lost last week, last month, last year and 5 years ago.

Without records you CAN NOT know if you are getting better, worse or the same.

Document every race you play in a spreadsheet. Document how you played it, for how much and what the result was. Do this every time you play.

The ONLY way you will every know what works for you and what doesn’t work is by having records.

KEEP RECORDS!

SEVEN: PLAY WHERE YOU GET A REBATE

There are several places to play greyhounds online. Some of them give you a rebate on every dollar you wager. Some of them do not. In fact, the largest online ADW site doesn’t give you anything for your business.

I get 14% of every dollar I wager back! They deposit it directly into my account the next day… every day.

If I have a month where I have a 60% ROI on my wagers… it is actually a 74% ROI because of the rebate.

If you are a break even player… you could actually be a winning player. Just by breaking even on your wagers, you could actually be making 14% on your action. That’s better than any CD rate you will get by putting your money in a bank.

PLAY WHERE YOU WILL GET A REBATE!

EIGHT: DON’T CHASE LOSSES

So you lost all of your money by race 12. But if you deposit another $50 or go to the ATM at the track and get another $40, you could bet it on race 14 and WIN!

WRONG!

You lost today. You played the races you had the best advantage in because you had a plan (remember tip #2?)

If you have a plan and you go broke today, stop. Your day is over. The only thing you will do by chasing losses is dig a deeper hole to get out of. Keep the hole shallow. That is your best shot to win.

NINE: STOP LYING TO YOURSELF

Every gambler (including myself) has said this, “I came out about even.” When I first started gambling it seems I broke even every week, every year for about 5 years. Truth is, when I look back and try to add up my actual results I lost tens of thousands of dollars.

If you are a winning player but you have a spouse that doesn’t understand variance and swings then it may be OK to tell him/her that you broke even just to keep the peace. But when you convince yourself that you are always breaking even then you are cheating yourself out of reality. This reality will drive you to improve, learn more, study, try harder and become determined to win.

I attribute my success to nothing more than determination. Over the years I have worked with many people to help them become winners. The main thing they need to understand is that you can’t become a winning player in a week. Sorry! It ain’t gonna happen.

The “best” of anything requires work. And becoming a winning gambler requires much more than most professions. Not only do you have to acquire the skill needed to win, you have a host of psychological issues to over come. After nearly two decades of being a winning player I still have to battle the psychological aspect of the game. Streaks happen in both directions. Winning and losing. I’m not some kind of gambling god when I’m on an unreal winning streak and I’m not a losing player on an extended losing streak.

The thing that I am… always… is honest with myself. I keep records and review my play. Am I the reason I am losing more than expectation or is this simple variation? These things I must always know as a player.

Be honest with yourself about how good you are playing. Strive to improve.

TEN: LEARN FROM WINNERS

One of the biggest steps I took on my path to becoming a winning player was getting to know someone who already was a winner. LJ was his name. He taught me so much about the game. I will forever remember him. LJ went on to his reward in 2006 but the impact he made on my life is on going.

If you go to the track, everyone there is a winner. Just ask them. It is odd how everyone can win though when it is a zero sum game. In a mutual system like greyhound racing, someone must lose for someone else to win. So I’m not telling you to watch the flashy, loud mouth braggarts at the track for guidance. I’m telling you to find an actual winning player to help mentor you. It will save you so much money, time and aggravation in the long run.

We help people become winning players at Greyhound Track Tips. If I can help you please don’t hesitate to ask!

[ad_2]

Source by Brett T. Mason

Categories: Sports Betting

Tags:

Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

[ad_1]

During the 1980’s, I was part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we not call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data. We were successful for two reasons. First we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole.

Those days are gone forever. The second key to success, is to understand how the numbers really work.

ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER

Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager £11 to win £10. Half the punters select team A, and collect their £10 when they win. The other punters choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie £11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. In reality, they hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsided books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd. The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without actually balancing the books.

THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED

Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favourite. But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favourite wins. If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favourite bettors, and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers, but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favourite. This results in a loss of $67,500.

Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favourites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins. So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.

TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS

Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50 coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favourite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.

[ad_2]

Source by Steve Arthur

Categories: Sports Betting

Tags:

Sports Betting Probabilities – The Secrets Of Understanding "Odds" To Gamble And Win

[ad_1]

Winning at sports betting is all about the probabilities. By studying them, it’s the only way that you can win consistently in the long term. Find out more about them in this article.

The Odds Show The Implied Probabilities

The odds that you are given by the bookie or at the betting exchange are a reflection of the implied probability being offered to you. How you work this out depends on the format of the odds that you are using.

For instance, fractional odds of 3/1 are also the same as decimal/international odds of 4, which are the same as US odds of +300. What these mean are a probability of one divided by the international odds (4) which gives 25%.

Always Go For Value In Probabilities

You should work out what you believe to be the real chance of your pick winning. Forget what the bookie is offering you for now. Work it out yourself and see what you come up with.

In the example above, let’s say that these were the odds given for picking the Chicago Bulls to win. If you believe that the Chicago Bulls are worse and really only have a 10% chance of winning, then you should not take this bet. You should take it because the bookie is not offering enough reward for your risk.

If you believe that the Bulls chance of winning is much more, say 50%, then you should take the bet. This is because the bookie thinks there is a slim chance of winning and will reward your risk for it handsomely. In actual fact, you know that they have undervalued the Bulls and you have not bad chances of winning.

Use All The Data Available

There are many ways to calculate probabilities for yourself. One way is to analyse the historic records of teams and players. There are many sources of data available these days and although it is available to everyone, a lot of people don’t use it. Thus you might find something that has been overlooked by everyone and be able to use this knowledge to your advantage.

[ad_2]

Source by Donnie Carter

Untold Secrets To Get The Best Picks On Sports Betting

[ad_1]

There are several elements that one thinks of whenever referring to picks on sports groups in the world plus, what I mean, regarding those tips as well as the picks, usually will usually mean WINNING those picks. Rather than just any “cross your fingers” form of winning, winning ones picks isn’t going to have to be a sometimes thing, the truth is it’s quite the contrary. Loosing a pick needs to become the ABNORMAL, that is, if your doing “the numbers” correctly.

Using a true numbers type method a person doesn’t need to be any mathematics expert or perhaps become technically advanced. You merely must evaluate your data properly along with knowing the numbers and you will instantly determine what game to choose accurately! Well then, I’ll be a tad bit more apparent….. The thing is, recently I had a man show me in detail what he does to be so successful on all his picks. What I found out is shocking.

Beneath I’m quoting This particular gentleman on his breakthrough:

“Years back I found the perfect hobby to combine both my lifelong passions of sports and statistics in the fascinating world of sports betting. Over the last 10 years I’ve spent untold hours exhaustively researching the sporting database in an aspiring pursuit to develop the ultimate foolproof sports betting system. “

Regardless of whether you’re the die-hard gambler, the sports fanatic, or maybe an individual whom despises betting and hates sporting activities yet simply desires to money-pile a new mountain of supplemental income each day performing the perfect and also simplest career on the globe, subsequently you’re gonna tumble head-over-heels in love by using exactly what I’m on the verge of explaining!

“Knowing The Numbers”

You should always always always “know your numbers” and I don’t give a who what the numbers are for either. What do I mean by this? Well, I’ll bet when you go to Buffalo Wild Wings and you see the guy trying to get a free T-shirt by eating buckets full of wings in a certain amount of time that if you put yourself in his shoes as to whether or not you could do it and depending on “the numbers” (time limit+amount of wings needed to consume) if you would give it a shot and be able to win that shirt.

Now, take a young man I’ve known for some time now for example, by the way, everyone in the dating arena should also “know their numbers” and her is why,, e. g……. This kid would ask just about every single woman who came through his drive through window to pick up the food that she had just ordered through the speaker, if they would go out on a date with him.. lol.. Now what this kid had and also new was “his numbers”. He new that he had to ask 7-10 single ladies out to get that one female to say YES….. And, boy oh boy, did he use “knowing his numbers” to his advantage.

NUMBERS DON”T LIE, unlike nothing I’ve ever seen before me, they simply cannot lie. They are what they are and they WILL come out and show themselves and make no mistake about it, If you know what those “numbers” are, then.. when it comes to other aspects, such a sports betting and picks on sports, you will be way ahead of the “I’m feeling lucky” type of Gambler.

Get more information from my blog and become a master numbers man in life, in love and most importantly your picks on sports, that is, if you want to obtain true success.

Until The Next Instance

Respectfully,

Johnny J

[ad_2]

Source by Johnny G Jones

Categories: Sports Betting

Tags: