Tag: Systems

Professional Poker Player Transition to Sports Betting – Where's the + EV in Horse Racing Systems?

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EV or Expected Value is a widely used term in poker terminology to determine if the outcome of a play is +, 0 or – in terms of profitability. This article is aimed for Poker Players who also like to punt on UK and Irish horse racing. It never ceases to amaze me how many good poker players are terrible at betting on horse racing. If they can spend so much time on their poker game then why not also put in the effort when placing a bet to ensure that you have the most + EV decision that you can possibly make with all the information at hand. The title of the post is actually a small bit misleading as I personally believe that all horse racing systems are doomed and the way to consistently profit at betting on horse racing is to have a horse racing method not a system.

The following article will lay the ground work for anyone who wants to start taking their punting to the next level. There is no better satisfaction then spending an hour or two analysing a race and 1 horse just stands head and shoulders above the rest when you compare all the different factors that I will explain below. Of course the toughest part is having the discipline to only wait for when these such occasions occur when placing a bet, and some times, this may mean you do not bet for up to a month. (This may help explain why I moved into playing poker from sports betting as the results of your actions are known instantaneously, and you can play a game anytime of any day). I also think you can compare a MTT player to a professional sports bettor – you can go long periods without a win and then score a few big results and then rinse and repeat and hopefully over the course of the year you will have been profitable.

1. You must specialize. All the most profitable professional sports bettors pick not only 1 sport but only a small niche in that sport. Patrick Veitch, who has won over 10 million punting on horse racing in the UK only bets on UK flat racing. He even has a massive team of researchers who do a lot of the work for him, but he as he also works 18 hours days during the flat season he is naturally burnt out by the end of the season.

For the beginner though, what I mean by specialize is concentrate on an area of ​​horse racing where you can get the most information. Information is power so unless you own a shed load of 2 year old horses or are the nephew of Aidan O Brein, there is no point in specializing in 2 year old horse races as you just wont have enough information to go on. Therefore it makes more sense to specialize on handicap races, where each horse in the race must of least have run 3 times to qualify but mainly are run by the same horses year in, year out until they are retired.

The best races then to specialize in are 4 year old plus handicaps in flat and national hunt racing as you have the most information available and you can start to see patterns in horses and therefore pick out some very + EV selections when you have spotted this pattern and the majority of the racing public haven't. This is the bread and butter of successful punting, going against the crowd.

Personally I used to specialize in 4 year old plus UK flat handicaps in the summer, and UK and Irish National Hunt handicap chases and hurdles in the Winter.

2. In your specialized area, when you select a race to analyze, you must go through every horse in the race to develop a shortlist. Below are my 5 essential criteria that every horse must have when you are placing a bet.

a) Going – The horse must be proven on going conditions.

b) Distance – The horse must be proven on the trip

c) Course Type – The horse must be proven on similar type of course

d) Fitness – The horse must have shown that it can operate at optimal levels since its last number of days off the track.

e) Class – The horse must have either won at the class he is currently competing in before or else gave a very good showing in a previous race at the similar or higher class level.

Going and Distance

With regard to going and distance and to a lesser extent course type, I will not fully discount a horse who has never raced on the going if he has extremely good sire stats (15% + strike rate) however I would always give precedence to another horse in a race who has won on for example soft going compared to a horse who has never raced on soft but has sire stats of 18% strike rate for soft going conditions.

With distance, I would also use sire stats if a horse is moving up or down in trip by 1 furlong on the flat, and 2 furlongs in national hunt. With experience, you can tell by looking at a race if a horses needs the extra trip or not and the sire stats can be a great way to back up that visual piece of information.

Course Type

This often overlooked by the general racing public. The best thing about UK and Irish racing is the different types of race courses you will encounter. Cheltenham (left-handed, galloping, undulating and testing track with stiff fences) is totally different to Stratford (left Handed, flat & Sharp) as it is to Sandown (right-handed, galloping, testing track)

A horse who has won twice in Cheltenham will probably never win a race at Stratford and vice versa. Bigger sized horses are more suited to galloping tracks as they can take the turns easier and can maintain a strong galloping pace for longer whereas a smaller sized horse is better suited to sharp tracks (ie less than 10 furlongs) as most of the running will be going around bends and therefore the bigger horses will not be able to maintain their top galloping speed for long on the stretches.

Also some horses can only run to their best at left handed courses and vice versa. You would actually wonder why trainers persist to run horses which clearly will not win on a certain turning race track, but then you realise by doing this, they will get their official rating down as horse will appear to be trying but will be hanging left or right the whole way through. You have to be aware that trainers will be trying to manipulate the handicapper a lot of the times in the lower grade races by running horses on unsuitable ground, at the wrong distance, on the wrong course type, or running the horse with a different style During the race all to try and reduce their rating so that they can set up a better chance for themselves to win in the future at a decent price.

I love Cheltenham race meet in March for the simple fact, the course is a stiff testing course which straight away rules out a lot of other horses in the race as they just cant handle it, the grade of racing and pirze money on offer means that everyone is trying to win, and you can nearly always guarantee what the going will be. Therefore if you just use the criteria above and select horses who are proven on the 5 factors (and this applies to the non handicap graded races too, you will see huge profits)

Fitness

To determine a horses fitness, you must look at its previous patterns of how it performed when it returns after a certain number of days off the track. The beauty of handicap races is you have loads of past information to go on and you can see if a horse is 0-5 when returning after an 80 day lay off, whereas he is 3-2-5 when he returns between 15 and 30 days.

Class

A horses class is often overlooked by the racing public. Statistically horses who are moving up in grade / class do not have a good strike rate, however the public will back it blindly if it sees it has won by 5 lengths in its previous race in a lower grade. Analyze past races to see if a horse has won or come close in the grade of race it is racing in today. You can discount a horse if it has failed 2 times at the grade when having all other conditions to suit except for when it is running for a new stable which has a good record at rejuvenating horses.

Also keep in mind that a horse who has placed in a black type race (ie grade, 1,2,3) will have a more class than a horse who has a good winning record in Class 2 (B) handicaps, so if it It is racing in a Class 2 handicap for the first time, do not discount just because it has never won a race.

3. Once you have created your shortlist based on the above criteria, you can now get down to the real dirty work of finding the eventual winner. Sometimes you might only be left with 1 horse, sometimes with 8, you must then start applying other filters to see if you can narrow down the list more. Sometimes the odds will allow to dutch 3 horses left if you can not narrow it down anymore. Then go for it as it is a plus EV move.

However be aware that every time you discount you must have a very valid reason backed up by a decent sample size. Here's a list of filters to reduce the shortlist.

Weight

Some horses as stated earlier have a bigger frame then others, therefore having top weight doesn't make much difference to them, whereas the smaller horse will struggle. Again by studying previous races you will spot a pattern

OR

This is the official rating that the horse racing board's in house handicapper assigns to a horse to determine what weight it should carry in its next horse race. The OR is updated weekly, therefore you sometimes see trainers turn out a horse 3 times in a week to try and take advantage of this before the handicapper reassigns it a higher rating. For an excellent explanation of official hores racing handicapping see this article written by good friend Malcolm Smith over at www.UKhorseracing.co.uk .

After a while, horses will reach their peak and start to hover around a certain OR mark. Therefore it will be unlikely that it will win if its OR mark is higher than its highest winning mark unless the horse is an improving progressive sort. But for older horses, this OR mark becomes more important and can be more relied upon.

Field Size

Some horses will not race unless they are covered in the pack, other horses need room otherwise they get into trouble during the race. The trick is to identify these type of horses. You will start to spot where some horses only win in races with less than 8 runners, but never figure in races with more than 12. You can safely assume that he needs the perfect ride in a big runner race but more than likely will not get that (This is when you can factor in the Jockeys ability to see if its OK to rule out this horse or not) The field size matters more in National Hunt, as some horses prefer seeing the jumps early / later and as they are pack animals prefer chasing a leader than actually leading

Seasonal

A lot of horses prefer to run in certain times of the year. This could be down to how a trainer prepares the horse over the course of the season and aims it to be at full fitness come March time for example, but other times horses just perform better in certain months. Again by looking at past patterns you will begin to spot these trends.

Trainer Statistics

8 years ago it was a very profitable trend to follow certain trainers at certain race tracks for certain race types. This edge has slowly eroded since the markets have caught on, however it still needs to be factored in when trying to finalize your short list.

Trainer – Jockey combinations

If you try and follow this blindly by backing winning Trainer-Jockey Combos, you will most likely end up with a loss. However it is a good tool to have when you are trying to reduce the shortlist as some stats are just too good to ignore.

Jockey Booking

This is actually a powerful indicator. However this again does not mean much if the horse does first qualify for the 5 essential criteria above. Also if you only ever back horses with the top jockeys on board you are forgoing on EV as, the odds will drop on a horse with the likes of Ruby Walsh or Tony McCoy on board, but odds will still remain good on a horse if for example the jockey booking was Graham Lee, who is a very underrated performer. Look back over past races and see how the horse has performed under their guidance before. You will start to see profitable trends and indicators.

Gambling Stables

There are a few ways to do this. One is manually record stables where horses have been heavily backed and won. Another way is to look at a horses previous wins and see what the average odds were. The lower the winning odds, the bigger chance that the stable money only goes down when the horse has a good chance of winning (Kevin Ryan is an example of a gambling stable). The higher the odds, means the horse has won races that they weren't fully expecting to win and therefore less likely a gambling stable (Veneita Williams comes to mind here for being an honest stable).

Post Race Comments

This is often overlooked. If you see what trainers, jockeys and owners have said to the press after a horse has won (See the racing post website for all the comments), you can pick up some useful information which can help you lean one way or the other on a selection.

Pace of the race.

To understand the pace of the race you first need to figure out what is each horse's preferred running style. They can be broken down into front runners, prominent runners, Hold up horses. Here's is a fantastic article which details the breakdown of winning% of different horses running styles compared to the actual number of race entries of horses with different running styles.

It shows that you should really be concentrating on front running and prominent horses as it accounts for 65% of winners compared to being only 50% of entries in races. Front runners in particular account for 20% of winners even though they only supply 11% of runners in a race.

You can use this to your advantage once you get to know all of the different course types. By backing a front running horse that satisfies the 5 essential criteria on a race course which has a sharp track with a short run in, you have added a few% EV points to your selection.

Another factor here is analyzing the previous 3 races the horse has ran in and check out the in running comments. Especially look at the horses who came placed or came outside the top 4 but were close near the end. Keep and eye out for comments like "finished strongly", "kept on well", "stayed on well", "kept on final furlong" and for other tidbits like "hampered" but then "finished strongly". These can point towards a horse who is on the upward curve and given the perfect conditions in the next race will have a very good chance of winning.

Another thing to factor in is if a race does not have any natural front runners, then the race will not be run at a true pace, therefore could throw up some very unusual results. It may mean that the horse who has the best speed on a flat track will win when it drives all out in the last furlong.

When the pace of the race is guaranteed, the classier horse which satisfies the essential criteria will more often than not win the race.

4. Resources

For 6 years, before getting lured into the world of Online Poker, I punted successfully on horse racing and I used the following resources

Ratings from ukhorseracing.co.uk.

The ratings are based upon advanced pure mathematics but are presented in a an easy to read pdf. The main feature in my view that sets this service apart from a lot of pretenders is the 'Class' filter they derive using their mathematical approach. Fantastically accurate for Non Handicap graded races in both National Hunt and Flat racing in the both UK and Irish racing. They also have a great forum where you can exchange ideas with the other members and have recently introduced a Racing Bot where you plug in all your profitable racing systems and sit back and watch.

Stats and ratings from ukracestats.com

I only found this website 4 years into my sports betting career, and it was free for nearly 2 years after that. It is without doubt the biggest time saving tool when it comes to analysing a race using all the criteria and filters I have mentioned above in the article. The only negative is that they only cover UK horse racing.

Racing Post Website- Last year they introduced a subscription service and I suppose it was about time considering all the information that it provides. It is essential for anyone serious about racing. I used it to confirm my findings from the ratings and stats mentioned above.

At The Races Website – Good for watching previous races and offers different race analysis from the Racing Post. As far as I know this is still free.

I hope that after reading the above that you will now not just throw money blindly at the favorite when you have a punt on the horses. Put a bit of time and effort into the selection process and give yourself a + EV chance of winning.

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Source by Paul Redfern

Greyhound Betting Systems – How to Win and Profit From Short Tote Prices

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Greyhound Racing can provide you with some great punting entertainment. A lot of the time though the short priced runners win meaning that you have to have a very good strike rate to actually show a profit long term.

I personally like greyhound racing for the fact that you only ever have 8 runners in a race here in Australia anyway, compared with horse racing where you can have 24 runners in a field. This is why the odds are not as good though and also the fact that the win pools are generally a lot smaller than horse racing win pools. There are some ways to get better odds though and improve your strike rate.

I like to stick to a method or system that has a good amount of winners. I usually won’t use a system that has less than a 30% win rate as this means I have to obtain prices better than 5/1 to actually make any decent profits. You will notice that a lot of greyhound racing results will show winners at 2/1 to around 4/1. When you are betting on greyhounds at these odds you will want a strike rate of around 60% plus to make good profits. The great thing about Greyhound Racing is that if you have a good selection method you can actually achieve these strike rates given that there are only 8 greyhounds in a race.

Here are a few tips for increasing your strike rate.

Stay away from maiden races. These greyhounds are just too inexperienced and are very hard to predict the outcome of these races especially when half the field has no prior form to work off.

It is also very important to look at win strike rate and place strike rates when betting on greyhounds. If a greyhound doesn’t have a very good win strike rate but a great place strike rate then maybe it is better off backing the greyhound for the place. Places don’t pay as much but it is better than missing out on a return dividend altogether if you aren’t 100% comfortable in thinking the greyhound can actually win the race.

Greyhounds from Box 5. Whenever I see a greyhound from this box I like to see if it has a history of running from this box and how it has performed in the past. Ask any greyhound punter about the dreaded Box 5 and they will tell you that they don’t like to bet on it. If a greyhound has excellent early pace however, this box can be no problem and still provide you with a winning result. Of course Box 1 is the box to have if the greyhound you are betting on is a railer and box 8 is the best one to have if you greyhound likes to run wide.

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Source by Benjamin J King

The Truth About Progressive MLB Betting and Chase MLB Betting Systems

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If you have bet on sports for any period of time, you know that losing streaks are part of the overall picture. It doesn’t matter who you are or how good of a handicapper you are, losing streaks are going to occur. It also makes no difference how you handicap. Bettors who rely on statistics, trends, or systems are not exempt from the inevitable slump, which makes following some of the baseball chase systems a dangerous task.

A chase system closely resembles the old Martingale betting strategy of simply doubling up after a loss, with the expectation of recovering any previous losses and showing a profit when you do win. If you were guaranteed a winning bet within three plays, the chase system would work fine, but there are no sure things in sports betting.

Just as streaks are part of baseball betting, they are also part of baseball and it isn’t unusual to see teams win or lose six, seven or even eight games in a row.

When somebody is promoting a baseball chase system, you will be drawn to an impressive record, but the records that are given aren’t the actual win-loss record of the games bet, but instead is the record of the chase sequence.

As an example, if a chase system says to bet the New York Mets, the Mets could lose their next six games. If they win the seventh game, a bettor following the sequence would show a record of 1-6 in the seven games they bet. But the system would be credited with a record of 1-0 on the premise that the sequence was successful.

If that isn’t bad enough, nearly every chase system will have you playing the favorite on the moneyline or taking the runline if the team is an underdog. Either way, you are going to be risking much more money than you stand to win. If you take an underdog of +120 on the runline, you can expect to risk close to -175 to get the 1.5 runs.

Using -160 for either a moneyline favorite or a runline underdog, assume a bettor wants to show a chase sequence profit of $100. The first bet will obviously be $160 to win $100. If the bettor wins the first bet, they will start a new sequence. It’s when the bettor loses the first bet that things begin to get a bit complicated. With the loss, the bettor is now down $160 and needs to win $260 on their next bet in order to recover the money lost and still show their desired $100 profit.

To win $260 on a wager that is -160, you will have to bet $416. If the second bet wins, the bettor can close out the sequence with a $100 profit, but if the second game loses, the bettor is now down $576 and will need to win $676 to show a profit for the sequence. That leads to a third bet of $1,082 and if the third bet happens to lose, the bettor is down $1,658 and will have to wager $2,813 to show a $100 sequence profit on the fourth bet. If it goes to a fifth bet, the amount required to bet would be $4,471, which could very well exceed a bettor’s betting limit or most likely, a bettor’s bankroll. A win in the fifth game would be good for a $100 sequence profit, but a loss will yield a sequence loss of $7,284.

Losing five bets in a row isn’t all that unusual. It does happen. But when it happens with a chase system it can get awfully expensive in a hurry and will knock all the best-funded sports bettors out of the picture.

Consider these numbers before you invest in a handicapper who claims to have a 44-1 record or have gone 22-0 last season. Losses happen, it’s a reality of the game.

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Source by Robert Holiday

Categories: Sports Betting

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Horse Betting Racing Secret Systems – Punting Tips You Take to the Bank

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Let’s face it, making money with horse bet racing is tough. Trying to beat the bookies is a scam, they collect all of the betting money from punters, and then drop the odds off the map seconds before the race starts, leaving you and every other punter out there “hung out to dry”, even if you picked the winner. However, there are still so many proven ways to take consistent winnings with the proper horse betting racing system.

The truth is that 95% of all punters do not make any winnings consistently. This is not because they don’t want to win or are not putting enough effort into their selection processes, but more often than not, this is because the horse bet racing system they use themselves is weak or flawed.

There is a distinct horse betting formula which professional punters use to pull consistent, even full time incomes from horse bet racing. Betting secrets which professionals have spent years developing as well as hiding from the general public. I am going to provide you with a basic overview of the horse betting process and some tips to get you punting with success right off the bat.

1.) This you may find pretty standard, but if you don’t know anything about horse bet racing, or reading racing forms, follow closely. Start by looking at the daily racing form. These are available at the track, a newsstand, bookstore, or you can simply go to the internet. You are going to need to know some of the basics about reading the racing form because this can make all of the difference between a successful and unsuccessful horse betting run.

Reading the days racing form gives us an overview for all of the days events. Which horses will be running, which jockeys will be running, who is the favorite horse before the betting can begin, what time are the races scheduled, etc. Reading the racing form is a must if you are serious about making money through horse betting racing.

2.) You want to gauge each horse in the race field to get an idea of how they have been running in their past events, this is called a horses “form”. Take a look at their past 3 races, how has each horse competed? What place and time did they finish? The speed figures are listed in the racing form and you can then compare a horses average speed and position against other horses in the racing field.

Also, take a look at the distance of the last 3 races each horse has ran. How does the horses last race distances compare to the current days race? Think of it this way, lets say a horse has done well in their last 3 races at 800 meters, maybe even finishing in the money. Now, if the race that particular horse is running today is 1500 meters, we are going to have to be very careful in analyzing the other horses in the racing field. The change in race distance can be negative because the horse may be a better choice at its previously successful distances. So, just because a horse has done well in their last few showings, it does not mean they are ever guaranteed to win. These are just some basic questions you need to learn the answer to before placing any wagers.

3.) Look in depth into the jockey who is riding the horse you may consider betting on. A good jockey can be the difference between a strong finish and your horses potential not being used properly. Take a look at the racing form and see how each jockey stacks up against one another. Some jockey’s are “young” in the horse racing world and may have never even won a race before, while others can be some of the most coveted jockeys in the horse betting racing league. So be sure to see who is riding each horse in a racing field, usually there will be some well known names that stick out above the rest.

4.) Finally, you should look at the favorites in each and every race. Favorites statistically win 30-40% of the time so always be sure to look at a favorite very carefully. There can be different levels of favorites as well. A super favorite may be a horse that seems leagues above the other horses in their particular racing filed, but more often that not each race will have several horses that could be considered a favorite. When this happens you want to be even more careful with your selection process. There are ways to place tri-fecta and quinela wagers which can cover all of your tracks, that is getting into a bit more complicated horse betting secrets though.

The truth is that there is a distinct formula to consistent winnings with horse bet racing secrets. Knowing where, when, and how to act can make all of the difference between a horse betting system that produces consistent results and one that may strike a winner here or there. Horse bet racing is gambling, there is no other way to put it. So there is always going to be some risk involved, but with a well disciplined horse betting racing system you can very easily earn steady profits from smart horse bet racing tactics and take the “gambling” completely out of the equation.

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Source by Jim Bradley

Categories: Sports Betting

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Horse Racing Betting Profits and Systems Based On Tote Board Odds

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It’s very difficult to make a profit betting on horse races because the market is self regulating. In other words, it adjusts to the conditions. The bettors set the odds in a pari-mutuel system and the public is very good at determining the chances of a horse winning a race. The reason you can’t make money betting on their top choice is simple.

The track has to take money out of the pari-mutuel pool in order to pay itself and the state. In a perfect world, the bettor who is as good as the rest of the crowd at picking winners will still come up short to the tune of whatever the takeout may be. So if the track is taking 17% from the win pool the bettor will lose 17% plus whatever the breakage may be.

In spite of this daunting setup some people still try to make a profit by using the odds on the board. To use those odds the would-be tote board analyst must have something to compare to and to determine that there is an irregularity or inconsistency. For instance, if he knows that the chances of Horse A winning are one out of three, and yet the horse is at 4-1, he has a winning bet.

Other than handicapping, however, what can he base that opinion on? The reason people turn to tote board betting systems is to avoid handicapping. Some people consider it a wise guy’s way of betting on horses. That may or may not be true, but one thing is certain, if you bet on horses that are at the right odds you’ll make a profit. The tote board player needs to know the probability of winning. The thing that usually determines that probability, or at least an indicator, is the odds, themselves.

If the odds will stay the same after the race starts and the betting pools are shut down you can use those odds to find a bargain in the show pool or win pool. Dr. Z and his tote board system proved that many years ago. The problem, however, is that those odds rarely stay fixed and there are other last minute bettors looking to exploit inconsistencies in the pools. While you’re making your place or show bet other tote board players are doing the same.

Other than finding those inconsistencies from one pool to the other I’d say the tote board is only useful as a tool is you use a good handicapping system to find a horse that is under-valued by the crowd.

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Source by Bill Peterson

Greyhound Betting Systems And Their Advantages

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Greyhound racing has been around for many generations as a pastime favorite of many people. This sporting event is popular for many people to watch and to bet on the races. Betting on greyhound dogs has many advantages over other forms of gambling.

In 1912, the greyhound tracks and the artificial hare have been around, first developed with the aim of stopping the killing of jack rabbits. People began to bet money on the races and the sport became popular for the male working class.

The treatment of greyhound dogs is not regulated by the Animal Welfare Act. This means that the industry is self-regulated and the treatment of the dogs is up to the owners. Dogs spend most of their time in kennels. The dog tracks themselves must abide by policies and procedures and the dog owners must follow rules laid out in contracts that they must sign. The track rules usually lay out the welfare and the treatment of the animals. If the kennel owners mistreat the animals or break the rules set forth in their contracts then they can be at risk of losing their racing licenses and all track privileges.

When you go to the dog tracks to bet on the sport, you should get a program immediately upon arriving. The program will break down each race of the day for you. You will be able to see the names of the dogs and what type of race they will be running.

You should study each of the dogs running in each race. The information provided about each of the dogs will include their weight, their placing in past races, their times, and the names of the other dogs that beat them. You can see if the dog fell in the last race or if they won also. When you get a good idea of a dog’s history you can tell how the odds of the dog will be. If a dog has won the past five races then chances are that most people will be betting on that dog to win.

If a dog is a favorite to win and you bet on that dog, you won’t win much. If a dog is not a favorite choice because it hasn’t won much in the past or it doesn’t have the best times then the odds will be high like 20-1. This means that if you bet $1 and that dog win then you would win $20.

When you bet on dog races you can bet on which dog will win or multiple dogs and their placing for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. If you pick your three favorite dogs and you are sure they will come in the three top places but you are not sure how then you can bet on the three dogs in a spin. This means that it doesn’t matter which place the dogs come in, you will win if all three place. When you spin dogs on a bet, the bet is more expensive. However, you can win more money when you bet this way.

When you have chose the dogs you like then go to the betting window and place your bet. The people at the window can help you understand how the betting works also if you don’t understand.

Greyhound dog racing is a popular sport all over the world. However, it is most popular in the United States for a financial means of gambling.

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Source by Tyler James Ellison

Categories: Sports Betting

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Sports Betting Systems and the Psychology of a Winning Sports Bettor

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If I had a nickel for every forum title I read that started out something like “Can you really make money betting sports?” I would be the richest man on the planet. Fact: If every bettor lost all the time there would be no sports betting market. It is that simple. I am a winning bettor. I don’t have to pick the paper up anymore and study statistics all day. It took some hard work to achieve this status. If you are tired of losing money and want to start making profits, keep reading.

Let me provide you with some basic statistics for the sake of the discussion. There are over 6 billion people in the world. Lets say only 3 billion are adults. Of those adults, only 10 percent bet on sports. That is 3 million people that bet sports. Of those 3 million people, only 2 percent actually make a living betting sports. The other 98 percent lose money. That leaves 60,000 people in the world who profit from betting sports for a living! These numbers are extremely conservative; it is estimated that over 200 million people ALONE will bet on the Superbowl in a given year. Not only is it possible to make a living betting sports, it happens every minute of everyday to real people just like you.

I have identified three crucial issues that keep amateur sports bettors from turning professional and turning profits in their sports betting careers.

1. The single biggest problem with those who lose money betting sports is a lack of discipline.

2. The second biggest problem is non-application of any substantial sports betting systems to keep you consistent and on target.

3. The third issue is thinking like the typical square bettor and not like the bookmaker.

I will address all of these fundamental betting flaws and give you a glimpse on how a winning sports bettor thinks and acts.

One of the best ways to lose your shirt over the long run is bet chasing. Scenario: You thought you had the lock of the century last evening with the first game. You lost that bet on some unbelievable nonsense, maybe a back door cover in a game that was long over for both teams. You got angry, saw the next game of the night coming up and impulsively doubled your bet for game two to cover your losses from game one. Then, since you had no real system in place to keep you in check, that game ends up a loser as well and you are now down big. Everyone has done this, and I am no exception. This is the lack of discipline I am talking about. You will lose some nights, just like your 401k will lose value some days. It comes with the territory. Bet just that one game and if it loses, cut your losses there and tomorrow is a new day.

There are tons of sports betting systems that exist, but some are very good if you have the discipline to follow them verbatim. Most sports bettors do not have the time, patience, or inclination to hypothesize, test, analyze, retest, and apply sports betting systems. This is why most sports bettors lose over the long haul. There are professionals who do have systems in place and are happy to share those systems with anyone who thinks they have what it takes to follow the system. You MUST have a system in place that keeps you on the winning path. Betting random games night in and night out without proper research is no formula for success. It is fun, but it is a money loser and that is not why you are here. You are here to become a winner. Remember, you will lose some nights. You will lose and losing is not fun. With a sports betting system in place that has been proven to win, over the course of your investment you will make money. How much you make and how often is entirely up to you applying discipline and consistency to your sports betting systems.

Think like the bookmaker. It has been said that books are only concerned with having an equal amount of bets placed on both sides of the same game. That way, with the vigorous factored into the game, the bookmakers earn a small profit regardless of who wins the game. This is a half truth. Yes, this is one way books make money. If you think that books won’t bait you into thinking a line is too good to be true, knowing that you, the general betting public, will pounce on that bet (a sucker bet or a trap bet) I have a bridge in San Francisco to sell you CHEAP. The real money for the bookmakers is in those games that are bet heavily on one side (and subsequently lost) by the general public. If a line is too good to be true it probably is. The bookmakers know the public loves the favorite. They also know more about tonight’s games than you could possibly research. They know you don’t have the discipline to stop while you are ahead (or down for that matter). They know you have no clue what sports betting systems give you an advantage. They also know that you think like an amateur bettor. This is precisely why you are not making money.

In my betting career one of the affirmations I would continuously rehearse was to never, ever think like the general betting public. Zig when others zag. It became so much more than just that but it was a start. The next thing is to trust the individuals who have paved the path before you. Put a system in place and follow it with precision and accuracy. Those sports betting systems exist and are being used every day. Over time, you will win. Winning translates into profits. Start winning and you will be able to do things in your life you couldn’t have dreamed of before. People every day are winning consistently betting sports. This should be you.

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Source by Brendon Zahrndt

Categories: Sports Betting

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